Market Valuation Effects and Investor Perceptions of Connected Transactions: An Empirical Analysis from The Stock Exchange of Thailand

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Porawee Wongsatitsart
Arnat Leemakdej

Abstract

This study investigated the market reactions to connected transaction announcements in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and examined investor perceptions of wealth expropriation from minority shareholders within business groups. The event study methodology was used to analyze cumulative abnormal returns for all connected transactions announced by SET-listed firms from 2014 to 2019. The sample was further divided into two subgroups based on the majority stockholder’s cash-flow rights in the listed firm compared with those of the connected party. To assess statistically significant differences in market responses between these subgroups, Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was employed. The results showed positive market reactions to announcements in the days preceding formal disclosure—potentially due to information leakage or anticipatory trading—but provided no evidence of a sustained positive reaction following the announcement date (day 0). Specifically, transactions involving firms with high cash-flow-rights, generated negative abnormal returns after the announcement, suggesting that the overall market response was not uniformly favorable. Investors appear to perceive these transactions as potential channels for wealth expropriation (“propping”) rather than unequivocally value-enhancing events, a view confirmed by the PSM analysis. This study contributes to understanding how markets respond to connected transactions and highlights implications for wealth transfer within business groups. The findings have practical significance for companies engaging in connected transactions and for investors seeking to incorporate propping risk in portfolio and risk management.

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References

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